[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 6 10:19:43 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to increase from very low
to low due to the emerging flux region 10820. The geoeffective
coronal hole wind stream is presently about 650km/sec. However,
will most likely decrease as the day progresses and the solar
wind stream departs its geoeffective position. Expect isolated
C-class flares over the next three days as region 10820 emerges.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 3332 2222
Darwin 9 3232 2223
Learmonth 11 3332 2321
Culgoora 7 2231 2222
Canberra 8 2331 2222
Hobart 11 3342 2212
Casey(Ant) 11 ---3 2323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 114 (Major storm)
Hobart 107 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20 4433 3342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been quiet to unsettled with
isolated occurrences of active levels due to effects of coronal
hole wind stream. Expect geomagnetic activity to decrease as
coronal hole wind stream departs geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Isolated cases of sporadic E noted at Townsville, Brisbane,
Hobart, and Christchurch in the evening and night which could
adversely effect HF communications. High latitude ionograms showed
possible loss of HF communication for short periods. The geomagnetic
disturbances should settle as Earth exits coronal hole wind stream
and HF communications should return to normal conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov 22 Near predicted monthly values
07 Nov 24 Near predicted monthly values
08 Nov 26 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs should return to predicted monthly values as the
Earth's magnetic field returns to quiet and unsettled levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 691 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 239000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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