[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 May 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 27 09:25:43 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 May 28 May 29 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: SOHO LASCO reported that solar region 767 just east
of solar central meridian (S07E14) produced front side full halo
coronal mass ejection 13-17UT. The event was not associated with
a strong xray flare, with xray flux peaking at around B7. The
region produced another flare and possible weak mass ejection.
This morning a small (sub-faint) optical flare was observed in
Culgoora H-alpha imagery peaking at 2211UT, a weak continium
was subsequently observed on the radio spectrograph starting
around 2140UT, possibly a weak Type IV, but no Type II prior.
Further minor flares may be possible from this region. Isolated
low level M class flare possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 May : A K
Australian Region 0 1100 0000
Learmonth 2 3100 0000
Culgoora 0 0100 0000
Canberra 0 1000 0000
Hobart 0 1000 0000
Casey(Ant) 3 2221 1000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 6 2121 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 May 12 Quiet to unsettled
28 May 25 Active to minor storm
29 May 20 Active to minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 26 May and
is current for interval 28-29 May. Coronal mass ejection induced
activity expected 28-29 May. Also, recurrence suggests unsettled
to active conditions 27-28 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 May Fair Fair Fair-Poor
29 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal for
today. Mid to high latitudes expected to become depressed late
28-29 May, due to anticipated coronal mass ejection induced activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 May 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 May 30 near predicted monthly values
28 May 30 near predicted monthly values
29 May 20 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 26 May
and is current for interval 29 May only. HF conditions are expected
to remain mostly normal for today. Mild to moderate degradation
for southern Aus/NZ region expected late 28-29 May. Northern
Aus region MUfs expected to remain mostly near normal.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 94200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list