[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 25 09:24:43 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May:  85/27

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 May             26 May             27 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today as well. 
Only a few B-class flares were noticed mainly from region 
767(S08E39). This region has shown some growth over the 
last 24 hours and there is some possibility that this 
region may produce isolated C-level activity. The solar 
wind speed remained between 420 km/s and 460 km/s for 
most part of the day today. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained mildly 
northwards until around 1600UT and then showed minor 
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value during the 
rest of the UT day today. The solar activity is expected 
to remain at very low levels during the next 3 days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1110 1011
      Learmonth            2   1110 1010
      Culgoora             1   1100 1011
      Canberra             0   0000 1012
      Hobart               0   0000 1011
      Casey(Ant)           5   1222 1211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2111 3321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 May     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
26 May     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
27 May    12    Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible. 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet levels with some possibility of isolated 
unsettled periods on 25 and 26 May. Isolated active periods 
may be observed on 27 May as a recurrent high speed coronal 
hole is expected to take a geoeffective position around that 
time. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most locations with some possibility of minor to mild 
depressions and degradation on high latitudes on 25 and 
26 May. Moderate degradations are possible on high latitudes 
on 27 May due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity 
on this day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 May    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of significant degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 May    30    near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to 
                10%. 
26 May    30    near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to 
                10%. 
27 May    23    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most Aus/NZ regions on 25 and 26 May. Minor degradations 
are possible at times in Southern Aus/NZ regions on 27 May. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 441 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   129000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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