[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 May 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 22 09:22:31 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 May 23 May 24 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. No
significant activity has been noticed today. The solar
wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 440 km/s to
400 km/s during the UT day today. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained mildly
to moderately southwards throughout the UT day today and it
is currently staying close to the normal value. The solar
activity is expected to remain at very low levels during
the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 21 May : A K
Australian Region 13 2233 4322
Learmonth 13 3222 4242
Culgoora 13 2233 4321
Canberra 13 2233 4322
Hobart 12 1233 4321
Casey(Ant) 9 3232 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 30 3664 4323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 May 9 Quiet to unsettled
23 May 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
24 May 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) remained southwards for extended
periods today and resulted in a rise in the geomagnetic
activity upto active levels at times today. The
geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly at
quiet levels during the next three days with possibility
of unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 May Normal Normal Normal
24 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in most locations during the next 3 days with
some possibility of minor to mild depressions and
degradation on high latitudes on 22 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 May 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed upto 30% with periods of
significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 May 34 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
15%.
23 May 35 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
15%.
24 May 36 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
15%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 470 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 39500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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