[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Mar             01 Apr             02 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low, 
with no significant flare activity observed. With no active regions 
currently on disc, or due to rotate on, solar activity is expected 
to be very low for the next 3 days. Solar wind parameters were 
at nominal levels over the last 24 hours. An expected increase 
in solar wind speed paramters is due from 01 Apr onwards, as 
a coronal hole moves into geoeffective position. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 30 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2121 1210
      Learmonth            4   2110 1301
      Culgoora             4   2121 1110
      Canberra             4   2121 1210
      Hobart               5   2122 2210
      Casey(Ant)           9   3332 2211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   0110 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Apr    16    active 
02 Apr    30    Active to Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 29 March and 
is current for interval 1-3 April. Quiet conditions expected 
next 24 hours, with 27 day recurrent patterns suggest active 
periods from coronal hole effects are probable 01-03 Apr. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Mild degradation at high latitudes expected from 01-04 
Apr due to coronal hole wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Mar    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Mar    45    near predicted monthly values 
01 Apr    25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
02 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 29 March 
and is current for interval 2-4 April. Good HF conditions expected 
for 24 hours. Mild to moderate depressions may be experienced 
for Southern Aus/NZ region from 01-03 Apr. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 488 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    92300 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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