[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 05

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 28 09:55:18 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Mar             29 Mar             30 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3323 3332
      Learmonth           12   3223 3332
      Culgoora             9   2222 3322
      Canberra            11   2223 3332
      Hobart              12   2323 3332
      Casey(Ant)          20   4443 3332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             107   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16   2444 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Mar    17    active 
29 Mar    13    Unsettled to Active 
30 Mar    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast 
period, isolated minor storm periods may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Mar    22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Depressed by 25% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Mar    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
30 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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