[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 05

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 26 10:55:17 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Mar             27 Mar             28 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 25 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   2343 3323
      Learmonth           11   2233 3323
      Culgoora            13   2342 3322
      Canberra            12   1342 3323
      Hobart              12   1342 3323
      Casey(Ant)          17   -434 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   0111 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Mar    22    active 
27 Mar    16    active 
28 Mar    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the 
forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
27 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Mar    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
     Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Mar    25    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
27 Mar    25    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
28 Mar    25    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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