[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Mar             02 Mar             03 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   3233 2223
      Darwin              16   3234 ---5
      Learmonth            8   2232 1323
      Culgoora             8   2223 2223
      Canberra             8   3223 1223
      Hobart              11   3333 2223
      Casey(Ant)          12   4--3 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              41   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   0231 3221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Mar     7    Quiet 
03 Mar     6    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Feb    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Mar    20    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 531 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   213000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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