[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 June 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 23 09:26:06 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY .R Activity 22 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun
Activity Low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Two low B-class
and a C1.8 flares were observed today. The C1.8 flare(1633UT)
originated from region 780. Solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 350 km/s to 310 km/s during the UT day today.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained moderately positive until around 1700UT and then
turned moderately negative. Bz has been staying southwards for
the last few hours. The solar activity is expected to remain
low on 23 June and very low to low during during the following
two days. The solar wind stream may get strengthened from 24 June
for the next three to four days as a coronal hole is expected
to take a geoeffective position around that time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 2112 1022
Learmonth 4 2212 1022
Culgoora 3 2112 1012
Canberra 4 2212 1022
Hobart 3 2111 1011
Casey(Ant) 3 1111 0121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4 1000 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jun 7 Quiet
24 Jun 12 Quiet to active, with some possibility of isolated
minor storm periods.
25 Jun 18 Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity may rise upto active
levels with some possibility of minor storm conditions on
24 and 25 June due to an anticipated coronal hole effect
during this period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations on 23 June. However, minor to moderate
degradations are possible on mid and high latitudes during
the following two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jun 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun 22 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jun 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: There is some possibility of minor to mild
degradations in Southern Aus/NZ regions on 24 and 25 June
due to an anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity during
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 52700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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