[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jun             13 Jun             14 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed fell to a minimum of 290km/s between 1300UT 
and 1800UT, after which it rose to be 310km/s at the time of this 
report. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz), fluctuated between +/-5nT from 0000UT to 1500UT after 
which it underwent short southward swings between neutral and -8nT. 
C-class events are expected for the next few days, with no sizable 
change in sunspot size or magnetic complexity of any of the regions 
currently on disk. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1112 0222
      Learmonth            4   1212 0222
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             2   1001 0211
      Hobart               2   1011 0211
      Casey(Ant)           5   2122 1122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2111 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Jun     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions possible for the next 
2 days due to the chance of a faint shock arrival from the
partial halo CME on 08June. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes.
Similar conditions expected for the next 2 days with the
possiblilty of degraded HF conditions for high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jun    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jun    35    near predicted monthly values 
13 Jun    30    near predicted monthly values 
14 Jun    30    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions observed for the last 24 hours.
Southern Aus/NZ region MUFs may experience some isolated
depressed periods over the next 2 days, but generally good
HF conditions are expected over all regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    61400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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