[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 June 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 6 09:43:30 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with only
C-class events from both regions 772 and 776. The largest event
was from region 776 with a C3.5 event at 1304UT. Solar
wind speed rose from 550km/s at 0000UT to a maximum of 650km/s
at 1300UT and then fell to be 550km/s at the time of this report.
Elevated solar wind paramters due to the current geoeffective
coronal hole are expected to continue for the next 2 days. The
magnitude of the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz), gradually fell from 10nT to 5nT as it fluctuated
throughout the UT day. Further C-class events are expected for
the next few days with the chance of isolated M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A K
Australian Region 15 3343 2333
Learmonth 15 3343 2333
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 14 2343 2332
Hobart 17 3344 2332
Casey(Ant) 17 3343 33-3
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18 2132 3454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jun 20 active
07 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
08 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active conditions observed over the last 24
hours due to the effects of the coronal hole wind stream. Mostly
Unsettled with isolated Active periods are expected over the
next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions observed for high latitudes over
the last 24 hours, with some minor depressions for mid latitudes
at the end of the UT day. Similar conditions are expected over
the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jun 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jun 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
07 Jun 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
08 Jun 35 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 5 June
and is current for interval 5-7 June. Southern Aus/NZ region
MUFs expected to have periods of mild depressions over the next
two days due to coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 79600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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