[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 June 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 4 09:46:26 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3/1B 0411UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.0 1226UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours with
a M1.3 class flare at 0405UT originating from region 772. A strong
CME was noticed in association with a M1.0 class event at 1151UT
from a region off disk, near the east limb. Solar wind speed was
fairly constant over the UT day around 420km/s and Bz fluctuated
between +/-5nT from 0000UT to 1400UT, where upon it has remained
close to neutral. Region 772 showed a small increase in its sunspot
size over the last 24 hours and has the potential for further
isolated M-class events. A coronal hole is visible at solar central
meridian and the earth is expected to enter its elevated solar
wind stream within the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 2221 1111
Learmonth 4 2221 1111
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 4 2221 1101
Hobart 3 2121 1101
Casey(Ant) 9 3332 2111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2222 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jun 20 active
05 Jun 18 active
06 Jun 16 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 3 June and
is current for interval 3-5 June. Moderately disturbed conditions
expected from coronal hole wind stream effects over the next
24 hours. Added geomagnetic effects are expected on 05Jun due
to the possible arrival of a slight shock from todays M-class
events.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
05 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
06 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions expected today over all regions.
Degraded conditions are expected from 05Jun onwards due to increased
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jun 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jun 35 near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
06 Jun 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Southern Aus/NZ region MUfs may become mildly depressed
on over the next three days due to coronal hole induced geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 58200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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