[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 May 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 1 09:31:16 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jun 02 Jun 03 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: A type II solar radio event was reported at 1445UT.
The associated flare had a small optical classification (sub-faint)
and was from solar region 770 located at N12W26. LASCO CME imagery
only appeared to show a mass ejection starting around 0938UT
which would be too early for this event, indicating the CME was
a backside event. This implies that no coronal mass ejection
escaped the Sun. Low solar activity is expected over the next
few days. US SEC SXI shows a north polar extension coronal hole
in the eastern solar hemisphere. Recurrence suggests that the
Earth will enter the wind stream from this hole around 03 June.
The north-south component of the interpalanetary magnetic field
was mildly southward 00-09UT, then northward, before returning
southward after 21 UT. Solar wind speed decreased from 500 to
460km/sec, following recent distrubed conditions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 May : A K
Australian Region 8 2322 3111
Learmonth 9 3223 3111
Culgoora 8 2322 3111
Canberra 8 2322 3111
Hobart 8 2222 4110
Casey(Ant) 12 3332 4212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A K
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 67 4367 6754
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Southward IMF conditions increased during local night
hours intensifying geomagnetic activity. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels today. Recurrence
suggests quiet conditions on June 1 and 2, then active June 3-4.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal
03 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were degraded more strongly than expected
at mid to high latitudes. Improved conditions expected today.
Mild recurrent activity may degraded high latitude HF comms 03
June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 May 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20%.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jun 20 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Southern Aus/NZ region MUFs strongly depressed yesterday.
Mild depression, of 15% expected after local dawn this morning
for southern AUs/NZ region, then recovering.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 459 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 38500 K Bz: -13 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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