[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 31 09:57:24 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**YELLOW**   MAG:**RED**     ION: **YELLOW**
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.3    0636UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jul             01 Aug             02 Aug
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Active region 792 produced a long-duration X1.3 level 
flare at 0635UT. This was followed by Type II and Type IV radio 
sweeps, and an asymmetric full-halo CME has been reported. The 
Type II sweep was observed on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph 
with an estimated shock velocity of 1835 km/s. A long, parallel-ribbon 
flare structure was recorded on the Culgoora H-Alpha Imager in 
AR792 at this time. A glancing blow geomagnetic shock is possible 
from this event on Aug 01. Proton flux remains elevated at 21 
pfu at the time of report issue and the current proton event 
is still in progress. This event may be sustained by the major 
flare activity observed today. AR 792 also produced a C9 level 
flare at 1639, with an easterly-directed CME reported. No Type 
II radio sweep was reported in association with this event. Solar 
wind speed declined gradually throughout the UT day from 580 
to 500 km/s as the present geoeffectively positioned coronal 
hole rotates beyond the west limb. Further M to X class flare 
activity appears likely from AR792. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3233 2112
      Learmonth            6   2232 1112
      Culgoora             8   2233 2112
      Canberra             8   3233 1101
      Hobart               9   2333 2111
      Casey(Ant)          12   4332 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              41   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             19   3434 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Aug    25    Active to minor storm 
02 Aug    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 30 July and 
is current for interval 1-2 August. Active to minor storm conditions 
observed at high latitudes early in the UT day. Otherwise conditions 
mostly unsettled, declining to quiet in the second half of the 
UT day. Solar wind parameters are declining as the currently 
geoeffective coronal hole rotates beyond the west limb. A glancing 
blow geomagnetic shock is possible early on Aug 01 resulting 
from a CME associated with major solar flare activity observed 
at 30/0630. Intervals of minor to major stom conditions are possible 
on Aug 01, declining to mostly unsettled on Aug 02. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 27 07 2005 2325UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
01 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions prevail at low to mid latitudes. 
The current proton event is still in progress and may be sustained 
by further observed solar flare activity. Expect continuing increased 
daytime absorption and periods of degradation at high latitudes. 
A possible geomagnetic shock on day two may cause periods of 
disturbance mainly at high latitudes on days two and three. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jul    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jul    45    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Aug    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
02 Aug    45    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed equatorial/N Aus 
regions. Expect periods of degradation S Aus/NZ regions on days 
two and three due to geomagnetic activity associated with a minor 
solar wind shock. Proton event following recent flare activity 
is still in progress, and may be sustained by further observed 
solar flare activity. Isolated radio fadeouts possible during 
local day over the next week due to returning active solar region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.8E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 566 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   237000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list