[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 24 09:32:07 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Jul 25 Jul 26 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: The solar activity continued to remain very low
today as well. The effect of the recurrent coronal has
started to show signs of weakening as the solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 580 to 410 km/s during the UT day
today. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) showed minor fluctuations on both sides
of the normal value almost the whole day. The effect of the
coronal hole, that is currently in progress, is expected to
further weaken on 24 July. The solar activity is expected to
remain at very low to low levels during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 1111 1211
Learmonth 3 1111 1200
Culgoora 3 1111 1112
Canberra 2 1111 0200
Hobart 3 1111 1111
Casey(Ant) 6 2221 1311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 13 3322 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Jul 7 Mostly quiet.
25 Jul 6 Mostly quiet.
26 Jul 6 Mostly quiet.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days as the
effect of the coronal hole diminishes during this period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on most locations during the next three days with
some possibility of minor to mild degradations on high
latitudes on 24 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Jul 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
10%.
25 Jul 23 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
10%.
26 Jul 23 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 592 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 146000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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