[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 21 09:52:27 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jul 22 Jul 23 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: The solar activity has been very low today. The
visible side of the sun remained spotless. The anticipated
effect of the recurrent coronal hole has started as the solar
wind speed gradually increased from 440 to 550 km/s during
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) showed minor to moderate oscillations on
both sides of the normal value almost the whole day. A sudden
weak impulse (12nT) was noticed at 1052 UT. The effect of this
coronal hole may keep the solar wind stream strengthened for
two more days. The solar activity is expected to remain at
very low level during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A K
Australian Region 13 2223 3342
Learmonth 13 2223 3342
Culgoora 11 2223 3332
Canberra 15 2223 4342
Hobart 16 2223 4442
Casey(Ant) 17 3433 33-3
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 89 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3231 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jul 18 Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods
possible.
22 Jul 13 Unsettled to Active
23 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 19 July
and is current for interval 20-22 July. The geomagnetic
activity rose today due to the anticipated coronal hole
effect. The geomagnetic activity may remain enhanced to
mostly unsettled to active levels with possibility of
isolated minor storm conditions on 21 July. The activity
is then expected to gradualy decline during the following
two days. A weak (12nT) impulse was observed in the IPS
magnetometer data at 1052UT on 20 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions may show mild to moderate
degradations on high and some mid latitude locations
during the next two days due to a continued expected
rise in the geomagnetic activity level during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jul 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values to depressed 5
to 10%.
22 Jul 18 near predicted monthly values to depressed 5
to 10%.
23 Jul 22 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed in Southern Aus/NZ regions
during the next two days due to an anticipated continued rise
in the geomagnetic activity level during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 403 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 63600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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