[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 19 09:52:23 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JULY - 21 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: AR790 is now on the farside beyond the solar west limb
and only produced two B-class flares. The first B flare near
0100UT was possibly associated with a small farside mass ejection
observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 near 0300UT. The solar disc was spotless
today with no new sunspot regions named. IMF Bz has been consistently
southward, strongly favoring reconnection with the geomagnetic
field, all day except for 12-14UT when it was near zero. The
proton event resulting from the X1 flare on the 14th ended today
at 1015UT. The recurrent coronal hole is now at central meridian
and should become geoeffective soon, elevating solar wind speed,
which today oscillated betwen 400 and 440km/sec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jul: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 18 Jul : A K
Australian Region 16 3353 3122
Learmonth 14 3342 4122
Culgoora 18 3353 4122
Canberra 19 3453 -122
Hobart 19 3453 -122
Casey(Ant) 13 4342 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22 3235 3335
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jul 12 Unsettled
20 Jul 30 Active to Minor storm
21 Jul 16 active
COMMENT: The field has been largely unsettled, ranging quiet
to active today with regional K indices ranging from 1 to 4.
High latitude field values have been in the storm range due to
prolonged substantial IMF Bz values southwards. The sustained
merging of the IMF and geomagnetic fields caused enhanced polar
cap circulation and field disturbance which has in turn influenced
the general field at mid latitudes. The recurrent solar coronal
hole, with presumably associated high solar wind, speed should
become effective around the 19th or 20th, causing increased geomagnetic
activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal Poor
PCA Event : Began at 1420UT 14/07, Ended at 0120UT 17/07
and, Began at 1740UT 17/07, Ended at 0920UT 18/07
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Jul Fair Fair Fair-Poor
21 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: At high latitudes the polar cap absorption (PCA) event
that ended today adversely affected radiowave propagation. Mid
and low latitudes did not appear duly affected by the unsettled
geomagnetic conditions although they may deteriorate in coming
days due to the onset of coronal hole high speed solar wind.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jul 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jul 25 near predicted monthly values
20 Jul 25 about 5% below predicted monthly values
21 Jul 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere appears fairly stable after the CME/weak
shock passages recently and the enhanced geomagnetic conditions
from prolonged IMF Bz. The high latitudes will should remain
disturbed due to ongoing IMF Bz southwards. The oncoming coronal
hole should disturb the ionosphere in coming days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jul
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 127000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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