[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 21 10:44:58 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X7.1 0701UT probable all Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 105/54 95/41
COMMENT: Solar region 720 now nearing the solar northwest limb
(currently at N14W67) produced another major flare an X7/2B at
0701UT. This flare was associated with a very strong proton event.
The 10MeV proton event was almost ended when the protons from
the X7 arrived at 0655UT exceeding event thresholds at 50Mev
and 100Mev. The ANARE/IPS Mawson neutron monitor observed a ground
level neutron monitor event at the time of the flare. This indicates
that extremely high energy patricles were radiated, at a significant
fraction of the speed of light. The flare was observed in Culgoora
H-alpha imagery as a vertical paralled ribbon flare. Parallel
ribbon flares are statistically associated with proton events.
The Culgoora Spectrograph showed a complex strong radio sweep
event. The LASCO space based coronagraph showed an apparent full
halo coronal mass ejection (the space based coronagraph imagery
was very noisey due to the strong proton event), this was despite
this regions far westward location. This makes the geoeffectivness
estimate difficult. Full halo events are Earth directed implying
a shock is expected on 22 Jan from this event, however the near
limb location may reduce any effects. Also, a solar coronal hole
is currently located at solar central meridian, and is expected
to cause an increase in solar wind conditions 23-24 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 14 2233 3433
Darwin 13 1233 3433
Learmonth 15 2223 4433
Culgoora 11 1233 3322
Canberra 15 2333 3432
Hobart 12 2333 3322
Casey(Ant) 24 ---4 4433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 12 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 31
Planetary 62 6667 6434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
22 Jan 45 Minor storm, isolated major storm periods possible.
23 Jan 20 active
COMMENT: A coronal mass ejection is expected to arrive on 22
Jan. Major storm periods are possible on this day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 16 01 2005 0220UT and
is in progress. Sustained by X7 event proton flux.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Fair-normal Poor
22 Jan Fair Fair-poor Poor
23 Jan Fair-normal Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Hf conditions affected by strong fadeout associated
with X7 flare. Polar region HF conditions strongly degraded by
solar proton event which has been contniued following X7 flare.
Cornal mass ejection expected to arrive on 22 Jan, degrading
HF communciations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 32
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan 50 near predicted monthly values
22 Jan 50 near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 10 depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed early in local day yesterday
in Austalian region. MUFs expected to be near to 15% above monthly
predicted values today. Depression is possible on 23 January
due to possible arrival of mass ejection following X7 flare.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.2E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 810 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 92500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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