[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 05

Wed Jan 12 11:00:55 EST 2005

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan:  94/40

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jan             13 Jan             14 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region 
718 and 719 have been combined into the one region 718, which 
was the source of a C1.4-class event at 1605UT. Region 718 and 
720 were also repsonsible for numerous B-class events. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, continued 
to fluctuate between +/-5nT, with some sustained southward periods 
between 0230UT-0530UT and 0600UT-0900UT. Solar wind velocity 
declined from a peak of 460km/s at 0200UT to 400km/s at the time 
of this report. Region 718 holds the potential for further C-class 
flare activity. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 713 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 12 Jan. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2332 2323
      Darwin               9   3222 2323
      Learmonth           12   3222 2433
      Culgoora             9   2332 132-
      Canberra            11   2432 1323
      Hobart               9   2332 1322
      Casey(Ant)          18   ---4 3333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   1111 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jan    12    Unsettled 
13 Jan    11    Unsettled 
14 Jan    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Jan    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  32

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jan    40    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Jan    40    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Jan    40    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over all regions in the 
last 24 hours. Conditions expected to be normal for the next 
24 hours with the chance of drepressed periods for Southern AUS 
and NZ regions due to an possible increase in geomagnetic activity 
from coronal hole effects. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 429 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    61600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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