[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 11 10:45:38 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
region 719 producing a C1.0 class flare event at 2145UT. This
was the only notable solar event for the UT day. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz fluctuated
between +/-5nT for the entire day. Solar wind velocity declined
from a peak of 500km/s at 0100UT to 380km/s at 1400UT, after
which it rose to be 440km/s at the time of this report. There
has been no notable change in sunspot size or increase in magnetic
complexity for any of the current regions on the disc. Region
719 holds the potential for further isolated C-class flare activity.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 713 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 12 Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Jan : A K
Australian Region 8 2221 2333
Darwin 8 -322 2-23
Learmonth 8 2221 2333
Culgoora 6 2221 2222
Canberra 8 1-21 2333
Hobart 7 2221 2323
Casey(Ant) 12 ---- 3234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jan :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1103 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Jan 14 Unsettled to Active
13 Jan 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected over the next
3 days, with a slight chance of isolated Active peiods due to
a large northern positioned coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over all latitutes in
the last 24 hours. These conditions expected to continue
for the next 2 days. Small chance of depressed periods for high
latitudes over this forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jan 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 32
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jan 50 near predicted monthly values
12 Jan 55 near predicted monthly values
13 Jan 55 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over all regions in the
last 24 hours. Conditions expected to be normal for the next
2 days with no transients or anticipated geomagnetic storm events
expected. Small chance of isolated depressed periods for
Southern AUS/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 22700 K Bz: 8 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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