[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 05

Sun Jan 2 10:35:27 EST 2005

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.7    0031UT  probable   all    West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan:  99/46

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jan             03 Jan             04 Jan
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Flares and shortwave fadeouts expected due to active 
solar region. 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1007UT 
on 01 Jan. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 01 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3333 3334
      Darwin              14   3423 2333
      Learmonth           16   3333 3434
      Culgoora            12   3223 3335
      Canberra            15   3233 3343
      Hobart              14   2233 3344
      Casey(Ant)          19   --44 3335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   3132 3211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jan    22    active 
03 Jan    31    Active to Minor storm 
04 Jan    17    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 31 December 
and is current for interval 1-2 January. Disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions expected during the forecast period. 
A weak (20nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 1050UT on 01 Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
03 Jan      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
04 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Jan    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jan    35    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
03 Jan    35    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
04 Jan    30    Depressed 15 to 20% southern Aus/NZ region 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on 31 December 
and is current for interval 2-3 January. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 457 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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