[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 114/65

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Feb             13 Feb             14 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Region 734(S04E43)
produced a C1.0 flare at 1000UT. The coronal hole effect 
is continuing to decline. The solar wind speed gradually 
decreased from 660 km/s to 590 km/s during the UT day today. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) fluctuated by 5nT (approx.) on both sides of 
the normal value by 1600UT. The fluctuations in Bz weakened 
to between +/-2nT after that and it seems to be close to 
the normal value at the time of this report. The solar 
wind stream is expected to continue to weaken on 12 February 
as the coronal hole effect subsides further. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at low to very low levels during the 
next 3 days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Mostly quiet to 
				unsettled with isolated active periods. 

Estimated Indices 11 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3224 2222
      Darwin               8   3223 2122
      Learmonth           11   2224 2---
      Culgoora             9   2224 2122
      Canberra             9   2224 2223
      Hobart               9   2214 2223
      Casey(Ant)          17   44-4 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             104   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             17   4433 4232     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Feb     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Feb     7    Quiet 
14 Feb     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels during the next 3 days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most locations during the next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Feb    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Feb    55    near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%. 
13 Feb    58    near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%. 
14 Feb    55    near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 710 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:   230000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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