[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 3 10:17:00 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Feb             04 Feb             05 Feb
Activity     Very low           Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27             100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind moderately elevated at 500km/sec with slow 
declining trend. RWC Belgium reported activity to the south of 
solar region 728 on 01 Feb at around 10-11UT using the SOHO EIT 
imagery. A review of both Culgoora and Learmonth solar observatory 
H-alpha imagery showed that an L shaped filament about 8 to 10 
degrees long (S18W18 to S15W26) vanished from the solar disk 
between 0808UT and 0828UT, which we had missed. Learmonth had 
reported a type 2 radio sweep of around 660km/sec at 1032UT. 
A CME was reported (as a backside event) around 1106UT. The reported 
radio sweep may be more associated with the presumed backside 
mass ejection at around 11UT, as the filament vanished much earlier 
starting around 08 UT. This may imply that the filament mass 
did not escape the Sun, or the coronal mass ejection was possibly 
too faint to be seen. However, it is not certain. Time of filament 
eruption suggests that a very weak partial shock may arrive first 
half of UT day on 04 Feb. ACE EPAM low energy ion channels showed 
a mild increasing trend (still very low count) but it is unclear 
whether this is associated with a weak recurrent coronal hole pattern 
or is a CME precursor. Possibly coronal hole wind stream. The Sun was 
flare quiet over the past 24 hours. Solar activty is expected to 
be quiet until around 05 Feb, when an previously active region may 
return to the solar disk. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2222 2321
      Darwin               7   1222 2320
      Learmonth            7   1122 2321
      Culgoora             5   1221 2220
      Canberra             7   2222 2221
      Hobart               5   1222 1221
      Casey(Ant)          19   3-43 3342
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   3012 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Feb     5    Quiet 
04 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
05 Feb    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions expected. A weak recurrent pattern 
and a possible erupting solar filament may cause active periods 
04 Feb. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Normal-Fair
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Feb    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Feb    20    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
04 Feb    30    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Feb    33    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Regional MUFs depressed 15% after local dawn southern 
Aus/NZ region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 554 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    41600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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