[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Feb             02 Feb             03 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was again moderately elevated at around 
600km/sec over the UT day. Wind speed is expected to start to 
decline today. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field fluctuated around neutral for most of the UT day. 
No solar flare were observed in the past 24 hours. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 31 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   2233 4331
      Darwin              11   2232 333-
      Learmonth           14   2233 4332
      Culgoora            12   2233 3331
      Canberra            16   2234 4331
      Hobart              20   2344 4430
      Casey(Ant)          17   3--3 4332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             16   3434 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Feb    12    Unsettled 
02 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Only 1 isolated active period observed. General decline 
in geomagnetic field expected for coming days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Fair-Normal    Normal-Fair
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Jan    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  32

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Feb    30    near predicted monthly values 
02 Feb    30    near predicted monthly values 
03 Feb    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs are aexpected to be mostly near monthly predicted 
values. Some brief depressions may be experienced in southern 
Aus/NZ region after local dawn this morning. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 593 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   151000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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