[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 28 10:24:11 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Dec             29 Dec             30 Dec
Activity     Very low           Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the previous 24 hours. 
These conditions are expected to continue throughout the next 
24 hours. Although currently quiet, region 0841 (N12E40) has 
been increasing in size over the last few days and may become 
more active as it passes across the visible disk. A large coronal 
hole extending from the solar high latitudes to the equator has 
moved into geoeffective position resulting in increased solar 
wind speeds at Earth. As a result, the solar wind has been steadily 
increasing in speed since 0900UT and is currently 640km/s and 
still increasing. Intermittent strong southward turnings of the 
IMF have resulted in enhanced merging and disturbances in the 
geomagnetic field, particularly at mid-high latitudes. The Earth 
is expected to remain in the coronal hole wind stream for the 
next 48 hours. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Unsettled with isolated
active-minor storm periods. 

Estimated Indices 27 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   2212 4443
      Darwin              15   2212 4443
      Learmonth           21   3112 4554
      Culgoora            12   2112 3443
      Canberra            13   2212 3443
      Hobart              13   2212 3443
      Casey(Ant)          23   3333 4454
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec : 
      Learmonth           11   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            55   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              79   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1010 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Dec    20    active 
29 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
30 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field responded to the combined effects 
of a coronal hole wind stream currently passing the Earth and 
intermittent periods of strongly southward IMF resulting in active- 
minor storm intervals late in the UT day. This activity is expected 
to continue over the next 24-48 hours - particularly in the high 
latitude regions - until the coronal hole wind stream wanes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Observed isolated cases of sporadic E at low and high 
latitudes and spread F observed at high latitudes. Expect possible 
minor degradation in HF propagation over the next 24-48 hours 
due to enhanced geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Dec    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Dec    22    near predicted monthly values 
29 Dec    14    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
30 Dec    18    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor degradation in HF propagation conditions over 
the next 24-48 hours possible due to enhanced geomagnetic activity 
as the Earth pases through a high speed coronal hole wind stream. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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