[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 14 10:38:48 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with only
a C1.7 class event at 2147UT, with an associated Type II radio
sweep observed on the Culgoora spectrograph being the only notable
flare activity. Solar activity levels are expected to be either
very low or low as there has been no change in any of the current
regions overall spot size or magnetic complexity. Solar wind
velocity continued to decline from 460km/s at 0000UT to 380km/s
at 1100UT. Solar wind velocity then increased to be 440km/s at
the time of this report. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was mostly neutral with some
southward periods during the UT day of the order of -5nT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 2221 3022
Darwin 4 1111 3022
Learmonth 3 2110 2022
Culgoora 5 1121 302-
Canberra 8 13-2 30--
Hobart 6 1221 31--
Casey(Ant) 13 33-3 3132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2310 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 12 Unsettled
15 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next 2
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly depressed HF conditions observed over the last
24 hours for all latitudes along with isolated disturbed periods.
Mostly normal conditions are expected over the next 2 days, but
with possible disturbed periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec 15 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
15 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
16 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 11 December
and is current for interval 11-14 December. Slightly depressed
HF conditions were observed over the last 24 hours for all regions.
Improving conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with
mostly normal HF conditions. Chance of isolated disturbed periods
for Southern Aus. and NZ regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 490 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list