[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 8 10:40:31 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec
Activity Very low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours, with
just a minor B-class flare from region 830 the only notable
event. Similar activity levels are expected for the next 24 hours,
with the slight chance of a C-class event. No change in spot
size or magnetic complexity was observed for the current regions
on disc. Solar wind velocity fell from 400km/s at the beginning
of the UT day to be 300km/s at the time of this report. Bz fluctuated
between +/-2nT throughout the UT day.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 822 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 8 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 1111 0001
Darwin 1 1111 0001
Learmonth 0 0101 0001
Culgoora 1 1011 0001
Canberra 15 --3- ----
Hobart 1 1010 0011
Casey(Ant) - ---- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 0011 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Dec 6 Quiet
09 Dec 6 Quiet
10 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet at all latitudes during
the last 24 hours. Quiet geomagnetic conditions expected to continue
for the next 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the last 24 hours
with isolated disturbed periods for low to mid latitudes. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Dec 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values
09 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values
10 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions where observed over the
last 24 hours, with overnight disturbed periods for Equatorial
and Northern Australia regions. Normal HF conditions are expected
to continue for the next 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 34400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list