[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 3 10:43:44 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.5 0253UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M7.8 1012UT probable lower European
M2.0 2122UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity High Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was high over the previous 24 hours with
three M-class flares, all from solar region 826. The largest
of these was an M7.8 from which occurred at 1012UT and was associated
with a Type II radio sweep and a CME. Estimated shock speed from
the radio sweep is 824km/s. This shock is expected to impact
the Earth towards the end of 04 Dec, and may produce increased
geomagnetic activity. Solar region 826 remains a large and complex
sunspot group, currently classified Ekc beta-gamma-delta. This
region is likely to produce more M-class flares in the next 24
hours. The Earth remains in a high speed coronal hole wind stream
with solar wind speeds of around 700km/s. The Earth should move
out of this high speed wind stream in the next 24-48 hours. IMF
Bz continues to oscillate about 0nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Unsettled to active
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 3333 2223
Darwin 10 3323 2223
Learmonth 14 4333 3223
Culgoora 10 3332 2222
Canberra 10 3332 2223
Hobart 13 3442 2222
Casey(Ant) 16 ---4 3233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 13 (Quiet)
Culgoora 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 75 (Active)
Hobart 62 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13 4212 2224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
05 Dec 18 active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was generally unsettled at mid-low
latitudes over the UT day, with active to minor storm periods
at high latitudes. With the Earth currently passing through a
coronal hole wind stream magnetic activity is likely to remain
at these levels over the next 24 hours. Minor storm periods possible
at high latitudes, particularly if Bz turns significantly southward.
Minor storm conditions are possible on 04 Dec after the expected
arrival times of the CMEs associated with the C2 class X-ray flare
which occurred on 01/0238UT, and the M7.8 class X-ray flare which
occurred on 02/1026UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Fair
04 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
05 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF conditions were near normal over the UT day for most
latitudes. Low latitudes experienced variable depressions and
periods of sporadic E occurred at mid latitudes in the evening
hours. Short wave fades occurred as a result of the M-class flares
at 0252UT, 1026UT and 2119UT.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec 18 near predicted monthly values
04 Dec 18 near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 12 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 2 December
and is current for interval 3 December only (SWFs) .
Mostly normal conditions in the Australian region over the UT day,
expected to continue. Some variability expected in northern
Australia and PNG region. Possible depressions in the Antarctic
in response to elevated geomagnetic activity. Short wave fadeouts
possible over the next 24 hours due to flaring from active solar
region 826.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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