[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 2 10:55:15 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Over
the next several days expect low to moderate solar activity with
the possiblity of isolated M class x-ray flares due to spot region
10826. This region shows a complex magnetic field and a growing
spot area. It has also produced multiple B and C class x-ray
flares throughout 1 Dec, the largest was a C6 flare occurring
at at 0837UT. Boulder region number 10824 produced a C2 x-ray
flare which peaked at 01/0238UT and was associated with a type
II sweep and CME. SOHO LASCO C3 images show the CME commencing
at 01/0418UT on the west limb. This may result in increased geomagnetic
activity on 03 December. An equatorial coronal hole is presently
in a geoeffective position and as a result solar wind speed is
at aproximately 700 km/sec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Unsettled to active levels. r
storm periods at high latitudes.
With the Earth currently passing through a coronal hole wind
stream magnetic activity is likely to remain at these levels
over the next 24 hours. Minor storm periods possible at high
latitudes, particularly if Bz turns significantly southward.
On 3 December after the Earth leaves the coronal hole wind stream
the geomagnetic field may remain active due to the CME effects
associated with the C2 class x-ray flare occurring on 01/0238UT.
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 3323 2224
Darwin 9 3223 2224
Learmonth 11 3223 2333
Culgoora 10 3323 2223
Canberra 10 3323 2224
Hobart 10 3323 2224
Casey(Ant) 22 5--4 3234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Culgoora 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 64 (Active)
Hobart 105 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3224 3123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 18 active
03 Dec 18 active
04 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 30 November
and is current for interval 30 November to 2 December. Geomagnetic
activity was generally unsettled at mid-low latitudes over the
UT day, with active to minor storm periods at high latitudes.
With the Earth currently passing through a coronal hole wind
stream magnetic activity is likely to remain at these levels
over the next 24 hours. Minor storm periods possible at high
latitudes, particularly if Bz turns significantly southward.
On 3 December after the Earth leaves the coronal hole wind stream
the geomagnetic field may remain active due to the CME effects
associated with the C2 class x-ray flare occurring on 01/0238UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
03 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Isolated cases of depressed conditions noted overnight
at low latitudes with Spread F. Darwin and Camden experienced
periods of Sporadic E, otherwise near predicted conditions noted.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 19
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
03 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
04 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 30 November
and is current for interval 30 November to 2 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 626 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 282000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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