[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 August 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Aug             08 Aug             09 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 06 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      23   3345 4333
      Learmonth           16   3334 3333
      Culgoora            25   3355 4233
      Canberra            27   3455 4333
      Hobart              29   2455 5333
      Casey(Ant)          24   3344 3-53
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   2211 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Aug    13    Unsettled to Active 
08 Aug    11    Unsettled 
09 Aug    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Aug    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 35% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Aug    35    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
08 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 424 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    93200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"