[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Aug             06 Aug             07 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: Solar regions 794 and 792 both have flare potential. 
ACE solar wind data may indicate a coronal hole wind stream entry 
late in the UT day. Solar wind speeds is expected to increase 
over next few days. A C8 flare was observed at 0559UT and was 
associated with a eastward directed mass ejection, which is considered 
not to be geoeffective. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2233 2212
      Learmonth            8   3232 2112
      Culgoora             8   2233 2112
      Canberra             8   2233 2202
      Hobart               7   2223 2212
      Casey(Ant)          11   3333 2212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             11   2321 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Aug    16    active 
07 Aug    18    active 
COMMENT: Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected today. 
Mild increase in geomagentic activity expected due to coronal 
hole wind stream 06-07 Aug. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
07 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condtions. Mild degradation possible 
at high latitudes 06-07 Aug. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Aug    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Aug    40    near predicted monthly values 
06 Aug    40    near predicted monthly values chance for mild 
                depression. 
07 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values chance for mild 
                depression. 
COMMENT: Mild depression possible southern Aus/NZ region 06-07 
Aug. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 457 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    80500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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