[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 19 09:26:56 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low during the last
24 hours. Only a few low level B-class flares were observed
during this period. The solar wind speed remained between
370 and 390 km/s (approx.) throughout the UT day today. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained close to the normal value for most of the
time today showing minor fluctuations on both sides of the
normal value at times- staying slightly southwards for
relatively longer periods. Solar activity is expected to
remain at very lo to low levels during the next three days.
The effect of the coronal hole, that is currently taking a
geoeffective position, may start to strengthen the solar
wind stream from 19 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 1222 3211
Learmonth 7 1212 3312
Culgoora 7 1222 3211
Canberra 7 1222 3211
Hobart 7 1222 3211
Casey(Ant) 10 2332 3222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1221 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Apr 10 Quiet to unsettled
20 Apr 12 Mostly unsettled, active periods possible.
21 Apr 12 Mostly unsettled, active periods possible.
COMMENT: Due to the effect of a high speed solar wind
stream from a coronal hole the geomagnetic activity may
rise from quiet to unsettled levels on 19 April. A further
rise in geomagnetic activity to mostly unsettled with
possibility of active periods is possible on 20 and 21 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
at low and mid latitude locations during the next three
days. However, minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
may be observed on high latitudes during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Apr 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values with periods of
minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 29
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Apr 27 near predicted monthly values
20 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
21 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most northern Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may be observed in Southern Aus/NZ regions during
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 403 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 70900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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