[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 17 09:31:47 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low during the last
24 hours. Only a few B-class flares were observed during
this period- the largest being a B7.7 flare at 1627UT. The
solar wind speed gradually decreased from 500 to 430 km/s
during the UT day today as the effect of the coronal hole
is subsiding. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the normal value for
most of the time today showing minor fluctuations on both
sides of the normal value at times. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 2111 1121
Learmonth 4 2111 1221
Culgoora 3 2110 1121
Canberra 4 2111 1121
Hobart 4 2111 1121
Casey(Ant) 11 3333 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 13 3422 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 7 Quiet
18 Apr 6 Quiet
19 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
quiet during the next three days. However, isolated unsettled
periods may be observed especially on high latitude locations
during the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
at most locations during the next three days. However, minor
degradations in HF conditions may be observed on high
latitudes during the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day with periods
of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 29
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 30 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%.
18 Apr 32 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 20%.
19 Apr 32 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 20%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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