[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 14 09:45:10 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low during the last
24 hours. The coronal hole effect kept the solar wind stream
strengthened throughout the UT day as solar wind speed
remained elevated between 540 and 620 km/s during this period.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) showed minor to mild fluctuations on both sides of the
normal value throughout the UT day, staying southwards for
relatively longer periods. Solar activity is expected to remain
at low to very low levels during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A K
Australian Region 25 2444 4533
Learmonth 26 2434 5533
Culgoora 19 2344 4423
Canberra 22 2444 4433
Hobart 22 2444 4433
Casey(Ant) 34 4543 4633
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 72 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 30 6534 4344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Apr 15 Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
15 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled.
16 Apr 7 Mostly quiet.
COMMENT: Coronal hole wind stream induced geomagnetic
activity is expected to gradually decline during the next
three days. The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
at mostly unsettled levels with possibility of isolated active
periods on 14 April, mostly unsettled on 15 April and mostly
quiet with some possibility of isolated unsettled periods on
16 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
at most mid and low latitude locations during the next three
days. However, minor to mild degradations in HF conditions
may be observed on high latitudes during the next two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Apr 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 29
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Apr 45 near predicted monthly values
15 Apr 47 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
16 Apr 50 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 514 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 224000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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