[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 September 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Sep             30 Sep             01 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind conditions nominal over past 24 hours. No 
significant solar activity over past 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2222 0012
      Darwin               4   2222 0012
      Townsville           4   2222 0013
      Learmonth            3   2221 0012
      Culgoora             4   2222 0012
      Canberra             7   2322 1---
      Hobart               6   2332 0013
      Casey(Ant)           7   3--3 1012
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 SEP : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            10   (Quiet)
      Canberra            46   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   1101 2231     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Sep     5    Quiet 
01 Oct     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Generally quiet conditions for the next three days, 
27 day recurrence patterns suggest unsettled periods today. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Sep    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Sep    40    Near predicted monthly values 
30 Sep    40    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Oct    40    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 360 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    58000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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