[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 September 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Sep             25 Sep             26 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar wind speed moderately elevated at 440km/sec, declining 
steadily over the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field fluctuated southward 5nT over the uT day. Mildly elevated 
wind conditions probably asscoiated with shock arrival on 22 UT. The 
Sun was relatively quiet over the past 24 hours, IPS/USAF Learmonth 
Solar observatory rates flare probability of solar region 673, solar 
disk location S13W30, as only fair. Magnetic configuration has steady. 
Old solar region 671 is due back to the southeasth (9S) solar limb 
around 25 Sep. On its last rotation this region, whilst not flare 
productive, emerged near the cnetre of the solar disk and showed steady 
growth in size and spot complexity as it crossed the western solar 
hemisphere. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 23 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3421 2112
      Darwin               8   3322 2113
      Townsville          11   3432 2122
      Learmonth            7   3321 2112
      Culgoora             9   3421 2112
      Canberra            10   3421 3113
      Hobart               7   2321 3112
      Casey(Ant)          18   4542 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16   1133 5443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Sep     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is expected to decline to quiet 
conditions. 27 day recurrence patterns suggest quiet geomagnetic 
conditions until 29 Sep. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Sep    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Sep    40    near predicted monthly values 
25 Sep    40    near predicted monthly values 
26 Sep    40    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 484 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:   202000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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