[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 September 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Sep             23 Sep             24 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: The CME that was expected to impact the earth on 22 
September has a high likelihood of not interacting with the geomagnetic 
field, as the energetic proton precursor data has peaked, and 
no shock has been observed at ACE. Solar wind speed increased 
gradually over the day up to around 440 km/sec. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2232 1112
      Darwin               5   2222 1112
      Townsville           9   223- ----
      Learmonth            4   2221 1112
      Culgoora             7   2232 1212
      Canberra             7   -332 1112
      Hobart               7   1332 1112
      Casey(Ant)          13   3343 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 SEP : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             13   3143 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
23 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 20 September 
and is current for interval 22-23 September. IMF Bz was southwards 
from approx 0000 - 0730UT, resulting in isolated active geomagentic 
conditions over that period. A CME associated with the M2-flare 
observed on 19 September now looks unlikely to interact with 
the geomagnetic field. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Fair           Normal         Poor-fair      
PCA Event : Began at 1950UT 19/09, Ended at 1210UT 20/09
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Conditions should be mostly normal for 22 September 
for mid-low latitudes, with improving HF conditions for high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Sep    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Sep    40    near predicted monthly values 
23 Sep    40    near predicted monthly values 
24 Sep    40    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Conditions should be mostly normal for 22 September 
for mid-low latitudes, and HF conditions for high latitudes 
should recover to normal. At low latitudes a dawn-depletion 
has been occuring regularly and is likely to continue. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:   10.2 p/cc  Temp:    46800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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