[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 10 09:35:25 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity Low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Newly numbered active region 672 on the eastern solar
limb produced a long-duration C3 level flare, commencing at 0450UT.
An associated partial-halo CME off the east limb was first visible
in LASCO C3 imagery at 0742UT. The CME does not appear earth-directed.
Minor flare activity was reported from region 671, now near the
western limb. There is a chance of isolated M-class activity
from region 672.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 0111 1012
Darwin 2 1111 0011
Townsville 1 0101 1013
Learmonth 0 0110 0001
Culgoora 2 0111 1013
Canberra 1 0101 1013
Hobart 1 0101 1002
Casey(Ant) 4 1320 1012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 9 2342 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 5 Quiet
11 Sep 5 Quiet
12 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity continues to decline towards low
values, and is at 330 km/s at the time of report issue. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was slightly southward
over most of the UT day. Observed geomagnetic conditions in the
Australasian region were quiet at all latitudes. Expect continuing
quiet conditions for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Significant overnight enhancements observed Equatorial
region. Generally enhanced conditions observed Antarctic region.
Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep 60 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
11 Sep 60 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
12 Sep 55 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant overnight enhancements observed Equatorial
region. Generally enhanced conditions observed Antarctic region.
Mostly good HF conditions expected for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 53800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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