[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 22 09:46:08 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Oct             23 Oct             24 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             115/66
COMMENT: Solar region 687 has produced considerable C-class flare 
activity over the past 24 hours. Recent associated CME activity 
does not appear to be Earthward directed. Solar regions 687 and 
682 have the possibility of M-class flare activity. Solar wind 
speeds have declined slowly over the past 24 hours from approximately 
460km/s down to 400km/s. Mildly elevated solar wind speeds are 
possible for the next day or two as coronal holes rotate out 
of geoeffective positions. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3332 0012
      Darwin               5   3221 1113
      Townsville           7   2332 0112
      Learmonth            5   3222 0012
      Culgoora             6   2331 0022
      Canberra             6   2331 0021
      Hobart               6   2331 0012
      Casey(Ant)          14   4443 1012
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            60   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              59   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   1331 4412     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Oct    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active 
                periods possible. 
23 Oct    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active 
                periods possible. 
24 Oct     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 
the next days with isolated active periods possible as coronal 
holes rotate out of geoeffective positions. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF propagation conditions possible 
at times for 22-23 October in association with forecast mildly 
elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Oct    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Oct    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
23 Oct    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
24 Oct    45    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF propagation conditions possible 
at times for 22-23 October for high latitudes in association 
with forecast mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 408 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:   126000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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