[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 1 09:31:31 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Oct             02 Oct             03 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hrs with 
GOES 10 & 12 satellites background X-Ray flux levels falling 
from B1 to A5. The solar wind velocity fell from 420km/s at 0000UT 
to 360km/s at the time of this report. The north south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between 
4nT and -2nT. These conditions are expected to continue for the 
next two days with no significant active solar regions on disc. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 30 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   2111 0011
      Darwin               3   2111 1011
      Townsville           1   1100 1011
      Learmonth            1   2100 0010
      Culgoora             1   1101 0011
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart               1   1100 0010
      Casey(Ant)           6   3321 0010
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            18   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2101 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Oct     7    Quiet to unsettled 
02 Oct     7    Quiet to unsettled 
03 Oct     7    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2 days with 
isolated Unsettled periods. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Local overnight depressions observed at low latitudes, 
with continued variable conditions possible for the next 24 hours. 
Slightly enhanced conditions for high latitudes observed over 
the later half of the UT day. Conditions should be mostly normal 
for mid-high latitudes over the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Sep    44

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 10% over local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Oct    40    near predicted monthly values 
02 Oct    40    near predicted monthly values 
03 Oct    45    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Overnight depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus region, 
and slight enhancements observed for the Antartic region. Mostly 
normal HF conditions are expected over the next few days at mid 
to high latitudes with possible overnight and post-dawn depressed 
conditions at low latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 394 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:    76900 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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