[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 30 10:51:42 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
just two recorded C-class events. A C3.2-class flare at 0130UT
and a C2.0-class flare at 1940UT both originated from region
707. The solar wind parameters were at elevated levels, in particular
the solar wind velocity rose gradually from 400km/s to be 600km/s
at the time of this report. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, fluctuated between +/-8nT
over the UT day. A sizable coronal hole position near the equator
has rotated into geoeffective position and is expected to produce
similar elevated solar wind parameters in the next 2-3 days.
Isolated C-class events are expected during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 15 3333 3334
Darwin 12 3223 3333
Townsville 12 2323 3334
Learmonth 13 3323 3334
Culgoora 15 3333 3333
Canberra 15 3333 3334
Hobart 13 3332 3334
Casey(Ant) 18 ---4 3334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 56 (Unsettled)
Hobart 69 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 14 3352 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
01 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
02 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to Active over
the last 24 hours, and is expected to continue with similar conditions
for the next 3 days. This is due to current elevated solar wind
stream parameters and the expected influence of a currently geoeffective
positioned coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected over most regions
for the next 24 hours. Minor depressions in MUFs and degradations
in HF conditions may be observed on mid-high latitudes for the
next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
01 Dec 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
02 Dec 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal over
most Australian/NZ regions, with the chance of minor to mild
degradations in HF conditions for the next 3 days. Depressions
in MUFs possible for Southern Aus/NZ regions also for the same
forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 39800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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