[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 28 10:48:54 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 110/60

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Nov             29 Nov             30 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. 
Two C-class flares were recorded during this period, a 
C2 from region 707(S16E26) at 0155UT and a C1.5 from 
region 706(S07E30) at 0516UT. Solar wind speed showed 
fluctuations between 400 and 440 km/s (approx.) for most 
part of the day. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field, Bz, remained mostly slightly negative 
during the UT day. A coronal hole may strengthen the solar 
wind stream from 29 November onwards for approximately three 
days after its effect starts. Isolated C-class events may 
be observed during the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Mostly quiet to unsettled. 

Estimated Indices 27 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2132 2433
      Darwin               8   2121 2333
      Townsville           9   1122 2432
      Learmonth           13   3122 2523
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra            10   2122 2433
      Hobart              12   2232 2433
      Casey(Ant)          14   --43 2322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 NOV : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             13   3343 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Nov     6    Quiet 
29 Nov    10    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled conditions possible. 
30 Nov    15    Quiet to unsettled with possibility of active 
                conditions. 
COMMENT: The geomagntic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet levels during the next 24 hours. An 
anticipated coronal hole effect may raise the geomagnetic 
activity to unsettled levels on 29 November and upto unsettled
to active levels on 30 November. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
30 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: Moslty normal HF conditions are expected for most 
locations during the next two days with possibility of minor 
to mild depressions on high latitudes on the second day of 
the period. Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations 
in HF conditions may be observed on low and mid-latitudes on 
30 November with possibility of mild to moderate degradations 
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs on high latitudes 
on this day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Nov    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with periods
      of minor to moderate degradations over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Nov    75    near predicted monthly values/5% enhanced. 
29 Nov    70    near predicted monthly values 
30 Nov    58    near predicted monthly values/dpressed 5%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
over most Australian/NZ regions during the next two days. 
Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and depressions 
in MUFs may be observed in the Aus/NZ regions on 30 November,
particularly in the southern Aus/NZ regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 474 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   102000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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