[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 26 10:40:16 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Nov             27 Nov             28 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with the 
only notable event being a C2.6 flare originating from region 
704. Solar wind speed continued to gradually increase, from 440km/s 
at 00UT to be 540km/s at the time of this report. The north 
south component of the interplanetary magnetic field was southward 
from 00UT to 08UT with a maximum of -8nT, after which it 
resided close to neutral with occasional slight southward turns.
Elevated solar wind stream parameters are expected over the next 2 days 
due to the coronal hole effects. Another large coronal hole appears 
to be moving into geoeffective position over the next 2 days. Regions 
706 and 707 have the potential for C-Class and isolated M-Class 
events. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3333 3222
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville          10   3322 31--
      Learmonth           12   3323 3232
      Culgoora             9   2232 3222
      Canberra            11   3233 3222
      Hobart              14   3333 4222
      Casey(Ant)          15   4--3 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 NOV : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              43   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2113 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 
27 Nov    15    Unsettled to Active 
28 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Conditions are expected to be Quiet to Unsettled, but 
with a greater chance of isolated Active periods over the next 
two days, due to elevated solar wind stream paramters from the 
recent geoeffective coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions expected for the next 24 hours 
over low to mid latitudes, with possible degradations at higher 
latitudes due to anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity 
from coronal hole effects. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Nov    95

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Nov    75    near predicted monthly values 
27 Nov    65    near predicted monthly values 
28 Nov    65    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be normal over most Australian/NZ 
regions, with possible degradations for Southern Australia/NZ 
regions over the next 2 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:   106000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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