[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 11 10:58:38 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z NOVEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X2/3B 0213UT observed all E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was high,
with region 696 producing an X2.5 flare at 0213UT. This
event was observed in association with a full halo CME
(estimated speed 2000 km/s) and strong Type II, Type III
and Type IV radio sweeps. This CME is expected to be
geoeffective and the shock is expected to arrive on 11
November. Several low C-level flares were also observed
today. As mentioned in yesterday's report another shock
is expected on 11 November from the CME event that was
associated to the M8.9 flare on 09 November. The effects
of both these CMEs are expected to strongly strengthen
the solar wind stream on 11 November. The effect is
expected to start declining on 12 November. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event is also expected to end around
12 November. The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease
from 800 km/s to 560 km/s (approx.) during the UT day.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) showed a strong fluctuation to approximately
-35 nT around 0100UT and then turned positive before another
southward turn soon after. Bz remained predominantly
southwards until approximately 1600UT and then remained
near the normal value until the time of this report.
Region 696 holds protential for major flare. This region
is expected to pass the limb on 13 November. The solar
activity is expected to remain moderate to high until this
region (696) rotates around the western limb.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event
beginning 10/1535UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Active to Severe
Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 71 6657 6543
Darwin 67 6567 5544
Townsville 76 6667 6543
Learmonth 56 65-- 654-
Culgoora 68 65-7 6532
Canberra 63 66-- 654-
Hobart 99 77-- 7543
Casey(Ant) 60 6645 56--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 NOV :
Townsville 119 (Major storm)
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 100
Planetary 200
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 47
Planetary 120 6657 6787
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 80 Active to severe storm.
12 Nov 60 Major storm to active.
13 Nov 20 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 9 November
and is current for interval 9-11 November. Due to the expected
strengthening of the solar wind stream due to the two CME
activities that were observed on 09 and 10 November, the
geomagnetic activity is expected to rise upto severe storm
levels on 11 and possibly on 12 November before declining to
unsettled to active levels on 13 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Poor-normal Poor-fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 11 2004 1915UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor
12 Nov Poor-normal Poor-fair Poor
13 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain degraded
and MUFs depressed on most locations during the next two
days due to an expected enhancement in the geomagnetic
activity to storm levels during this period. The HF conditions
may start improving late on 12 November or early on 13
November. The trans polar HF communications are also exprected
to be adversely affected for the next two days by the proton
event that is currently in progress.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov -55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 50% during local day,
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov -10 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
12 Nov 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Nov 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on
10 November and is current for interval 10-11 November.
Moderate to strong degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be expected during the next two
days in most Australian NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.9E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 673 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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