[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 May             01 Jun             02 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48              90/34
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased from 400 to 500km/sec over 
the UT day. This may indicate that the Earth is entering the 
anticpated moderately elevated solar coronal hole wind stream. 
No significant flare activity observed over past 24 hours. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 30 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2124 3233
      Darwin               8   2123 3223
      Townsville          11   2124 3233
      Learmonth            9   2223 3222
      Culgoora             9   1124 2132
      Canberra            10   2124 2233
      Hobart               9   1124 2233
      Casey(Ant)          12   2333 3233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 MAY : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            46   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              60   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14   3334 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 May    15    Unsettled to Active 
01 Jun    17    active 
02 Jun    18    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 27 May and 
is current for interval 1-3 June. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Slight degradation possible at times for mid to high 
latitudes over the next few days as the result of anticipated 
slightly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
30 May    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 May    50    near predicted monthly values 
01 Jun    35    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
02 Jun    35    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs mostly expected to remain near normal over next 
few days. Chance for brief mild depression after local dawn southern 
Aus/NZ region only as the result of anticipated slightly elevated 
geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    91100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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