[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 May             30 May             31 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters suggest the Earth may be under 
the influence of a coronal hole solar wind stream, most likely 
coming from a broad and thin coronal hole visible in SOHO EIT284 
imagery extending from across the eastern solar hemisphere. The 
IMF has also sustained a long mildly southward period during 
the past 24 hours. Coronal hole effects are expected to persist 
for the next few days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   1111 2333
      Darwin               4   1111 2223
      Townsville           5   1101 2232
      Learmonth            5   1111 2323
      Culgoora             6   0111 2332
      Canberra             6   0011 2333
      Hobart               6   0011 2333
      Casey(Ant)           7   1221 2323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 MAY : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1132 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 May    12    Unsettled 
31 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 27 May and 
is current for interval 1-3 June. Generally quiet to unsettled 
conditions expected. A broad and thin coronal hole may produce 
isolated active periods over the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days. Mild degradation possible at times for mid to high 
latitudes over the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 May    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to
      depressed 15% at times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to
      depressed 15% at times.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 May    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
30 May    50    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
31 May    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly good HF communications conditions expected next 
few days. A mild degradation may be experienced at times over 
the next couple of days for southern Aus/NZ region only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    61900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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