[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 21 09:39:17 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 May 22 May 23 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Only B to minor C-class flare activity observed over
the past 24 hours. A disappearing solar filament in the northeast
quadrant early in the UT day produced a narrow northeast-directed
CME which does not appear earth-directed. There is a small equatorial
coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere producing a mildly
elevated solar wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 May : A K
Australian Region 9 2224 2222
Darwin 8 2223 2222
Townsville 9 2224 2223
Learmonth 12 2234 2233
Culgoora 9 2224 2222
Canberra 9 1224 2222
Hobart 9 1224 2222
Casey(Ant) 13 3433 2223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 MAY :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1211 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 May 15 Mostly unsettled. Chance active periods.
22 May 12 Unsettled
23 May 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: There was a steady increase in solar wind velocity after
about 03UT. The Bz component of the IMF was mostly northward,
but a period of negative bias in the first half of the UT day
preceded isolated intervals of active geomagnetic conditions
observed at all southern latitudes. Expect mostly unsettled geomagnetic
conditions today and on day two under the influence of the mildly
elevated coronal hole wind stream. There is a chance of isolated
active periods. Conditions should decline to quiet to unsettled
by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected for the next few days
with possible isolated degradations at mid to high latitudes
on days one and two.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 May 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 43
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 May 70 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
22 May 65 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 May 70 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild overnight spread-F observed S Aus/NZ regions. Spread-F
observed generally Antarctic region. Mostly normal to good HF
conditions are expected over the next three days. Possible isolated
degradations at mid to high latitudes on days one and two in
association with mild geomagnetic disturbances.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 63200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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