[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 May             14 May             15 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours, with 
a C1.0 class event at 1540UT along with some minor B class events. 
Solar wind speed rose to 450km/s before falling to 380km/s at 
the time of this report. Bz was northward for most of the day 
and went south at 1520UT before fluctuating between +/-5nT from 
2100UT onwards. 


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 596 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 13 May. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3321 2122
      Darwin               6   2321 1122
      Townsville           8   3321 2121
      Learmonth            8   2421 1121
      Culgoora             7   2321 2122
      Canberra            11   4331 2122
      Hobart               8   2331 2123
      Casey(Ant)           9   3322 1133
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 MAY : 
      Townsville          10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   3311 2234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected 
for the next few days due to the northern hemisphere positioned 
geo-effective coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected for the next 24 hrs, 
with the possbility of minor degradations in HF conditions at 
high latitudes for the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 May    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted montlhy values. 
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      variable local disturbances.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 May    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed by about 
                5%. 
14 May    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed by about 
                5%. 
15 May    45    near predicted monthly values/depressed by about 
                5%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain normal for the 
next 24 hours with minor depressions in MUFs possible for Southern 
Aus/NZ regions for the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: A6.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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