[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MAY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 May             08 May             09 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              90/34              95/41
COMMENT: Solar regions currently visible show little sign of 
significant activity for the next few days. Solar wind speeds 
have declined during the past 24 hours from approximately 650km/s 
down to 500km/s as a coronal rotates out of its geoeffective 
position. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2222 2122
      Darwin               6   2222 2122
      Townsville           6   2222 2122
      Learmonth            7   222- ----
      Culgoora             5   1222 2122
      Canberra             5   1222 2122
      Hobart               5   1222 2112
      Casey(Ant)          13   3443 1122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 MAY : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           12   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            76   (Active)
      Canberra            79   (Active)
      Hobart              73   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13   2333 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 May    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active 
                peiods. 
08 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 May     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds are abating as a coronal hole rotates 
out of its geoeffective position. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly quiet to unsettled for the next few days with isolated 
active periods possible for 7 May. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mildly degraded at times for mid-high 
latitudes for 6 May. Mostly normal conditions are expected for 
the next few days with slight depressions again possible at times 
for mid-high latitudes for 7 May. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 May    46

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 10-20% at times during local day,
      otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-20% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for May:  43

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 May    45    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
08 May    50    Near predicted monthly values 
09 May    55    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions were mildly degraded at times for southern 
regions for 6 May. Mostly normal conditions are expected for 
the next few days with slight depressions again possible at times 
for southern regions for 7 May. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: A7.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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