[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 March 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MARCH 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Mar             25 Mar             26 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Minor 
possibility of isolated C-class activity from regions 574 and 
578. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2112 0122
      Darwin               4   2111 1122
      Townsville           4   2112 0122
      Learmonth            4   2111 0132
      Culgoora             2   1012 0022
      Canberra             3   -112 0022
      Hobart               3   2211 0022
      Casey(Ant)           7   2-32 0132
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 MAR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   3332 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Mar     6    Quiet 
25 Mar     6    Quiet 
26 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed today, 
with isolated unsettled periods mainly in the first half of the 
UT day. Solar wind parameters declined to nominal levels over 
the UT day. Expect continuing quiet conditions on days one and 
two. Recurrence suggests a brief return to unsettled conditions 
on day three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected. Mild degradations 
possible at times at high latitudes in association with isolated 
geomagnetic disturbances. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Mar    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 10-20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March:  49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Mar    80    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
25 Mar    80    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
26 Mar    70    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Spread-F conditions observed generally in Antarctic 
region. Generally good HF conditions observed, and expected next 
three days. Expect localised minor degradations at high latitudes 
in association with isolated geomagnetic disturbances. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 431 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    97200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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